Wed. Sep 30th, 2020

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At current pace, India can reach 1.5 million cases in 7 days

2 min read

India’s total coronavirus case tally is set to hit the 1.5 million mark in seven days’ time if it continues to rise at the same pace as since early July. Active cases, or the number of patients still under treatment, are rising at a much faster rate recently: the jump was 27% in the last seven days, compared to 20% in the week-ago period (8 July to 15 July).

As of Wednesday morning, India has 411,133 active cases and 28,732 deaths have been attributed to the infection, the health ministry data showed. The seven-day spike in deaths is 18%, in line with the preceding week. The seven-day rolling averages have been considered for these calculations since they minimize the effect of volatile and delayed reporting.

For over a month, new infections and deaths have been rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. The country has the third highest number of active cases, after the United States and Brazil. The toll is the eighth highest in the world. Among high-fatality countries (more than 10,000 deaths), India has recorded the biggest spike in deaths as well as active cases over the past week.

With cases rising, India’s health facilities and workforce continue to be under severe strain. The risk of further spread is higher now as the economy has started to reopen and most public movement is allowed.

Among states, Maharashtra (12,276), Delhi (3,690), Tamil Nadu (2,626), Gujarat (2,196) and Karnataka (1,464) have reported the most deaths. These states together account for 77% of all covid-related deaths in India so far. However, only two of them, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, have seen a bigger spike than the national average in the last seven days.

Of the 12 states with the most active cases, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar have reported the biggest percentage jumps in deaths. In terms of active cases, Bihar, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh led the surge in this period, based on the seven-day rolling averages.

 

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