Wed. Sep 30th, 2020

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At current pace, India could reach 1.5 million cases in five days

2 min read

India’s total coronavirus case tally is set to hit the 1.5 million mark in five days’ time if it continues to rise at the same pace as since early July, an analysis of the latest health ministry data showed. Active cases, or the number of patients still under treatment, are rising at a much faster rate recently: the jump was 28% in the last seven days, compared to 21% in the week-ago period (10 July to 17 July).

Overall, India has 440,135 active cases as of Friday morning and 30,601 deaths have been attributed to the infection, the health ministry data showed. The seven-day spike in deaths is 19%, higher than 18% in the preceding week. The seven-day rolling averages have been considered for these calculations to minimize the effect of volatile and delayed reporting.

Since early June, new infections and deaths have been rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. The country has the third highest number of active cases, after the United States and Brazil. The toll is the seventh highest in the world. Among high-fatality countries (more than 10,000 deaths), India has recorded the biggest spike in deaths and the second biggest jump in active cases over the past week.

With cases rising, India’s health facilities and workforce continue to be under severe strain. To curb renewed spread, some states are enforcing localized lockdowns again.

Among states, Maharashtra (12,854), Delhi (3,745), Tamil Nadu (3,232), Gujarat (2,252) and Karnataka (1,616) have reported the most deaths. These states together account for 77% of all covid-related deaths in India so far. However, only two of them, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, have seen a bigger spike than the national average in the last seven days.

Of the 12 states with the most active cases, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar have reported the biggest percentage jumps in deaths. In terms of active cases, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Bihar led the surge in this period, based on the seven-day rolling averages.

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