Fri. Oct 23rd, 2020

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At current pace, India could reach 2 mn cases in 10 days

2 min read

India’s total coronavirus case tally is set to hit the 2 million mark in 10 days’ time if it continues to rise at the same pace as since early July, an analysis of the latest health ministry data showed. Active cases, or the number of patients still under treatment, are rising at a much faster rate recently: the jump was 27% in the last seven days, compared to 25% in the week-ago period (13 July to 20 July).

Overall, India has 485,114 active cases as of Monday morning and 32,771 deaths have been attributed to the infection, the health ministry data showed. The seven-day spike in deaths is 19%, higher than 18% in the preceding week. The seven-day rolling averages have been considered for these calculations to minimize the effect of volatile and delayed reporting.

Since early June, new infections and deaths have been rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. The country has the third highest number of active cases, after the United States and Brazil. The toll is the sixth highest in the world. Among high-fatality countries (more than 10,000 deaths), India has recorded the second biggest spike in deaths as well as active cases over the past week.

With cases rising, India’s health facilities and workforce continue to be under severe strain. To curb renewed spread, some states are enforcing localized lockdowns again.

Among states, Maharashtra (13,656), Delhi (3,827), Tamil Nadu (3,494), Gujarat (2,326), Karnataka (1,878) have reported the most deaths. These states together account for 77% of all covid-related deaths in India so far. However, only two of them, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, have seen a bigger spike than the national average in the last seven days.

Of the 12 states with the most active cases, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have reported the biggest percentage jumps in deaths. In terms of active cases, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka led the surge in this period, based on the seven-day rolling averages.

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