The previous month’s figure of 113.02 has been upwardly revised to 114.16.
In September 2023, the US employment transfer index rose to 114.66.
According to Selcuk Eren, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, “The ETI increased slightly in September, indicating sustained job growth in the future. Although the Index has been gradually declining since its peak in March 2022, it remains well above pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that the US economy will continue to generate employment opportunities throughout the remainder of 2023 and into the following year, even if the pace of growth moderates. With robust job gains and persistent wage growth, we anticipate that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in November and maintain them at elevated levels for an extended period.”
Eren continued, “Several components of the ETI confirm that the US labor market remains tight. Initial claims for unemployment insurance and the ratio of part-time workers unable to secure full-time positions remain exceptionally low. Moreover, the percentage of businesses reporting difficulty filling their vacant positions increased slightly in September.”
He added, “Conversely, the number of employees engaged in temporary help services, a crucial early indicator for hiring in other sectors, continues to decline after reaching a peak in March 2022. Additionally, the proportion of consumers reporting that jobs are ‘hard to come by,’ as indicated in The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®, has risen. Looking forward, we anticipate that the Fed’s rate hikes will gradually dampen job growth, potentially leading to job losses commencing in Q2 2024. Our latest US forecast predicts the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2 percent by the latter half of 2024, resulting in approximately 700,000 job losses. Nonetheless, we expect the downturn to be short-lived, with job opportunities rebounding quickly by the end of the following year.”